Looking away from China

Hong Kong has a famous Cassandra economist, Marc Faber, otherwise known as Dr. Doom. His career appears to have built on the basis that if you keep calling for doom and destruction, when it does ultimately happen, you can declare yourself correct.

I am feeling a bit that way about south-east Asia. For a year or so now, I've been predicting that we will see a resurgence of interest in the region for the first time since the 1997 Asian financial meltdown triggered by revaluation of the Thai baht. Now, it has to be said, Thailand's generals seem to be going out of their way these days to prove me wrong, but I continue to see signs.

As ASEAN leaders meet in the Philippines, the Economist is running a story talking about how manufacturers are looking at alternatives to China. The first line: "China is choking on its success at attracting the world's factories. That has handed its Asian neighbours a big opportunity".

Vietnam emerges from the story as a particularly big winner along with Malaysia which, with Mad Maht now just sniping from sidelines, appears to be regaining favour. Back in June we posted on Vietnam and continue to see increased interest in this market, now a member of the WTO.